Night Before Draft Day

So you'll see below that I think the Eagles will likely draft a running back with their first pick. I don't like Wells, as I've suggested. While I believe Wells could play a situational role this year and later be paired with an effective third down back (more effective than Moats or Booker), I think the Eagles are well aware that they need someone who can carry the load for the likely 2-4 games that Westbrook misses or isn't 100% for. That guy, I hope is Moreno. It is looking less and less likely that Moreno is there at 21. I'm hoping he will be, but he is definitely a possibility for the Saints or the Chargers, or another team that tries to move ahead of the Eagles. The Saints, I think, are less of a concern than the Chargers. They could use a bigger back like Wells, b/c they've already got so much money invested in Reggie Bush that they need to get him onto the field at least on third downs. Wells would resemble McAllister in their offense, a combination with which the Saints had such success, to Eagles' fans dismay, a few years back. More likely though, I think the Saints go defense. Their offense was nasty last year, and their defense sucked. Expect them to look to draft the best secondary player on the board, or to be a possible trading partner for the Eagles and then move down and draft a corner at 21. The bigger concern seems to be Moreno going to San Diego, who perhaps may be looking for a replacement for LT after this year. If Moreno looks good, it would enable them to cut LT after this year and pair Moreno and Sproles, since Sproles doesn't have the body type to hold up as a feature back over the long term.

If Moreno is not there, look for the Eagles to move back to take Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy (I think McCoy early in the second is prob more appealing to the Birds than Brown late in the first), or to draft another defensive end, especially if Robert Ayers or Everette Brown is still on the board. Michael Johnson could also be a possibility, but he may be available much lower than that.

As for TE's, Pettigrew is an option, but I expect the Eagles to address the TE position in the second round most likely. I don't think that Reid and co. really believe in spending a first on that position. Jared Cook is the next most intriguing TE prospect, and probably the only other one aside from Pettigrew that looks like he has a good chance of being a difference-makers. The guy is fast and has hands, but he played in Duckface Spurrier's spread offense with the Gamecocks, so we really don't know if he can block. Very successful tight ends that also were more pass-catchers than blockers that may interest the Eagles in the third, such as Chase Coffman of Missouri, who was unbelievably prolific as a receiver in college, but had some injuries and lacks the kind of speed of a player like Cook. The other guy with blazing speed for a TE (in the 4.5 range) is Southern Miss's Shawn Nelson, who seemed to be a decent blocker in college, but at 240 is a bit light to expect him to excel as a blocker in the NFL.
A lot of this hinges on how much better the Eagles think Celek is going to get. If they feel that he's a real number 1 pass-catching TE, then they may wait until day 2 to take a TE who will really only be on the field on running downs and in two TE sets, but if they think Celek was at or near his ceiling late last year, expect them to be intrigued by anyone with the speed to create mismatches between the hashmarks. In that case, look for them to take a DE or DB.
Oh, and while we're on the subject of TE's, as far as Gonzalez, I wouldn't believe everything you read about the Birds' interest. My guess is that the rumor about the Eagles' interest came out of Kansas City in an effort to prevent the Falcons from waiting until they could see if Pettigrew was still available when they pick late in the first round.

If the Birds do go with a DE or Pettigrew in the first and McCoy is gone by the time their second round pick comes around, they are likely to look at Andre Brown of NC State or Rashad Jennings of Liberty in the third. Shon Greene of Iowa is one powerful runner, and could be appealing if he lasts until the third, but without much receiving experience, he's prob not ever going to an every down back in this offense, so I don't think they'd spend a second on him.

Basically, I think, if the Eagles pick three times in the first three rounds, we should expect an RB, a TE, and either a DB or DE, but as you have noticed. I think there's a pretty good chance we'll be picking four times in the first three rounds, and an outside chance we'll only pick twice (b/c we use a third to move up to 13 or 14 to draft Moreno).

And of course, there is always the possibility that the birds surprise us all and simply take the best available player. If they move back into the first half of the second, for example, and Alex Mack of California (GO BEARS!) the best center prospect in the draft, is sitting there, it would be about as hard for the Eagles to resist drafting him as it is for them to win over the fans by assuring us that John Street (honestly, why would you ever bring that guy up, Joe) told them they didn't have to pay the city back.



So with tomorrow's draft, aka Christmas morning (or Christmas 4:00) of the NFL offseason just hours away, I've left youse guys a poem to close out my post.

Twas’ the night before draft day, and all through NovaCare
Joe Banner was adjusting his full head of “hair”
The drunks got their High Lifes and Colt 45
In hopes Anquan Boldin soon would arrive
And Howie the cap guy (but not to his face)
Tried to discern how Pettigrew plays in space
Then up from the kitchen came Big Andy Reid
Looking for linemen with both size and speed
“On Johnson, On Jackson, On Ayers, On Everette Brown ”
Or maybe a running back so the fans can calm down
“Now Moreno, now Donald, now Lesean McCoy,”
Which of you’s gonna be Marty’s new toy
To the top of the draft boards, or should we just trade
By the time we pick, the fans will have passed out in the shade
So please dirty thirty don't boo this year’s McNabb
Since we know that makes millionaires so very sad
So Andy’s post-draft speech is done (all eleven words)
Happy Draft Day to All, and to All, Let’s Go Birds