So you'll see below that I think the Eagles will likely draft a running back with their first pick. I don't like Wells, as I've suggested. While I believe Wells could play a situational role this year and later be paired with an effective third down back (more effective than Moats or Booker), I think the Eagles are well aware that they need someone who can carry the load for the likely 2-4 games that Westbrook misses or isn't 100% for. That guy, I hope is Moreno. It is looking less and less likely that Moreno is there at 21. I'm hoping he will be, but he is definitely a possibility for the Saints or the Chargers, or another team that tries to move ahead of the Eagles. The Saints, I think, are less of a concern than the Chargers. They could use a bigger back like Wells, b/c they've already got so much money invested in Reggie Bush that they need to get him onto the field at least on third downs. Wells would resemble McAllister in their offense, a combination with which the Saints had such success, to Eagles' fans dismay, a few years back. More likely though, I think the Saints go defense. Their offense was nasty last year, and their defense sucked. Expect them to look to draft the best secondary player on the board, or to be a possible trading partner for the Eagles and then move down and draft a corner at 21. The bigger concern seems to be Moreno going to San Diego, who perhaps may be looking for a replacement for LT after this year. If Moreno looks good, it would enable them to cut LT after this year and pair Moreno and Sproles, since Sproles doesn't have the body type to hold up as a feature back over the long term.
If Moreno is not there, look for the Eagles to move back to take Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy (I think McCoy early in the second is prob more appealing to the Birds than Brown late in the first), or to draft another defensive end, especially if Robert Ayers or Everette Brown is still on the board. Michael Johnson could also be a possibility, but he may be available much lower than that.
As for TE's, Pettigrew is an option, but I expect the Eagles to address the TE position in the second round most likely. I don't think that Reid and co. really believe in spending a first on that position. Jared Cook is the next most intriguing TE prospect, and probably the only other one aside from Pettigrew that looks like he has a good chance of being a difference-makers. The guy is fast and has hands, but he played in Duckface Spurrier's spread offense with the Gamecocks, so we really don't know if he can block. Very successful tight ends that also were more pass-catchers than blockers that may interest the Eagles in the third, such as Chase Coffman of Missouri, who was unbelievably prolific as a receiver in college, but had some injuries and lacks the kind of speed of a player like Cook. The other guy with blazing speed for a TE (in the 4.5 range) is Southern Miss's Shawn Nelson, who seemed to be a decent blocker in college, but at 240 is a bit light to expect him to excel as a blocker in the NFL.
A lot of this hinges on how much better the Eagles think Celek is going to get. If they feel that he's a real number 1 pass-catching TE, then they may wait until day 2 to take a TE who will really only be on the field on running downs and in two TE sets, but if they think Celek was at or near his ceiling late last year, expect them to be intrigued by anyone with the speed to create mismatches between the hashmarks. In that case, look for them to take a DE or DB.
Oh, and while we're on the subject of TE's, as far as Gonzalez, I wouldn't believe everything you read about the Birds' interest. My guess is that the rumor about the Eagles' interest came out of Kansas City in an effort to prevent the Falcons from waiting until they could see if Pettigrew was still available when they pick late in the first round.
If the Birds do go with a DE or Pettigrew in the first and McCoy is gone by the time their second round pick comes around, they are likely to look at Andre Brown of NC State or Rashad Jennings of Liberty in the third. Shon Greene of Iowa is one powerful runner, and could be appealing if he lasts until the third, but without much receiving experience, he's prob not ever going to an every down back in this offense, so I don't think they'd spend a second on him.
Basically, I think, if the Eagles pick three times in the first three rounds, we should expect an RB, a TE, and either a DB or DE, but as you have noticed. I think there's a pretty good chance we'll be picking four times in the first three rounds, and an outside chance we'll only pick twice (b/c we use a third to move up to 13 or 14 to draft Moreno).
And of course, there is always the possibility that the birds surprise us all and simply take the best available player. If they move back into the first half of the second, for example, and Alex Mack of California (GO BEARS!) the best center prospect in the draft, is sitting there, it would be about as hard for the Eagles to resist drafting him as it is for them to win over the fans by assuring us that John Street (honestly, why would you ever bring that guy up, Joe) told them they didn't have to pay the city back.
So with tomorrow's draft, aka Christmas morning (or Christmas 4:00) of the NFL offseason just hours away, I've left youse guys a poem to close out my post.
Twas’ the night before draft day, and all through NovaCare
Joe Banner was adjusting his full head of “hair”
The drunks got their High Lifes and Colt 45
In hopes Anquan Boldin soon would arrive
And Howie the cap guy (but not to his face)
Tried to discern how Pettigrew plays in space
Then up from the kitchen came Big Andy Reid
Looking for linemen with both size and speed
“On Johnson, On Jackson, On Ayers, On Everette Brown ”
Or maybe a running back so the fans can calm down
“Now Moreno, now Donald, now Lesean McCoy,”
Which of you’s gonna be Marty’s new toy
To the top of the draft boards, or should we just trade
By the time we pick, the fans will have passed out in the shade
So please dirty thirty don't boo this year’s McNabb
Since we know that makes millionaires so very sad
So Andy’s post-draft speech is done (all eleven words)
Happy Draft Day to All, and to All, Let’s Go Birds
Friday, April 24, 2009
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Peters's sacks last year
Check out this on the Bills message boards if you want to see which of the alleged 11.5 sacks he gave up were Peters's fault and which weren't. It links to NFL replays where you can see every sack and judge for yourself too:
http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?t=127203
http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?t=127203
The Eagellectual's Thoughts on Boldin, Brown, and Saturday's First Round
The big talk since the Peters trade is the question of whether the Eagle would still consider trading for Boldin. My inclination is to say no. Supposedly the Cards are seeking a first and a third, and Boldin is seeking a contract in the neighborhood of 4 years for 40 million dollars. It's hard to imagine the Eagles giving up more in picks and as much in annual salary for a wide receiver than they did for an offensive tackle, a position the Eagles clearly value more. It wouldn't be a total shock if they moved for him, but my guess is the recent language out of Joe Banner about doing whatever they can to help the team when asked about Boldin is simply an effort to drive up Boldin's price in case the Giants make a move at him. If I had to predict though, Boldin will be more likely to end up either in the AFC (maybe Baltimore?) or still on Arizona.
Sheldon Brown has just gone public complaining about his contract. He is making less I think than Joselio Hanson this year, but the fact is he agreed to the big long term contract, and he has four years left on it. There is no way the Eagles do a new deal with him this year, if for no other reason that it weakens the Eagles negotiating position with McNabb. As usual, the Eagles here hold all the leverage, so expect Brown to boycott a minicamp or two but come in and play as usual. If he plays well for another two years, then maybe the Eagles will sit down with him.
I hope this works. Sheldon Brown is really, really good. There's a reason that the Eagles were trying to trade Lito and not Brown last year. Brown is a lockdown cover corner who can play press man or zone. He's a great tackler and has incredible instincts downfield and as a blitzer. They need him for at least one more year. It is strange though that the birds have brought in first round quality CB talents Vontae Davis (who scares the heck out of me that he could be another workout warrior like his brother SF tight end Vernon, whose biggest catches have come on an UnderArmour commercial) and Sean Smith (who may be an NFL safety). My guess is that is just due diligence on the part of the Birds but we'll see.
Everyone seems to think the Eagles first pick in this draft will be a RB. I tend to agree. This is by far our biggest need for this year and is also one of our more important long-term needs. Knowshon Moreno is all the rave right now, and for good reason. He's got good enough size and can do everything. He runs screens excellent and is effective both up the middle and running to the outside. He has good field vision and is capable of making two cuts behind the line of scrimmage. He is fast but not ultra fast, but he does a decent job of using his body to make defenders miss. He is excellent at making sure he always falls forward to pick up a few extra yards. From what I've read, he was also superb in blitz pickup in college, which is crucial for running backs to be able to contribute early to this complicated Eagles offense. He really does seem to be the total package, but he may not be around still at 21. I've definitely seen him linked to the Saints at 14 and the Chargers at 16 (although I'm skeptical about whether they want to invest first round money in a rookie RB with sproles making a bunch of new money). As for the Saints, I think, and hope, that Ohio State's wells, a big powerful two-down back, might be a better complement to Reggie Bush. Wells lacks the receiving experience to play a lot of downs in this Eagles offense next year. Let's hope Knowshon falls to 21, although I think if he's really their guy, the Eagles might be willing to move up to draft him. It would prob. take a 3rd to get up to 12 or 13. Plus the Eagellectual loves a guy with the word "Know" in his first name.
If Knowshon is gone when the Eagles pick, I'd look for them to trade down which many dumb eagles fans hate (but I have no problem with picking up an extra first day player). Donald Brown (UConn) and/or LeSean McCoy (Pitt) should be available in the last six picks of the first and first six picks of the second, although there is significant talk that the Colts will draft one of them with the 27th pick in the first round. The Patriots, also, might be in the market for a running back. Possible trading partners with extra picks in the second are the Giants, Patriots, Dolphins, and Browns. Brown is a fairly complete back who can do most things well, but may not be exceptional McCoy is a speedy back who can catch the ball out of the backfield. From what I read he needs to learn to play the blitz, but has the instincts to be a decent blocker--so did Westbrook when we brought him here, and now he's the best pound for pound blocking tailback in the league--the Sugar Ray Lewis of blitz pick-up, if you will. In many ways McCoy's game is like Westbrook's. He's bigger then B-West and played against better college competition, although he lacks the second gear that has made Westbrook such a scary big play threat in the NFL.
There are two wildcards here that might change the Eagles first round strategy. The first is named Brandon Pettigrew. He is a beastly large Oklahoma State tight end with very good hands and good route-running skills. He is an excellent blocker, which the Eagles desperately needed last year (but might need less this year with a healthy Shawn Andrews, joined by Jason Peters and Stacey Andrews as stud run-blockers on our line). I'm inclined to think the Eagles don't believe in drafting tight tends in the first round, especially one who lacks the speed to challenge good NFL safeties downfield, but if I'm wrong, he's there at 21 and prob. not there all that much later.
The other wildcard is Mr. Victor Abiamiri. We still don't know how good this guy is. Hopefully someone in the Eagles organization does. We need more pass rush for the other DE spot (opposite Cole), and if the Eagles don't have faith in Abiamiri, they might look to draft a DE--perhaps Michael Johnson if he falls (GA Tech) or Robert Ayers (Tenn). Andy Reid treats defensive end prospects the way he treats cheeseburgers--there's no such thing as too many, and Tom Heckert and Jim Johnson love "to throw fastballs" (maybe we should send them over to Brett Myers's house).
I suppose there's also an outside change that the Eagles could draft a first round receiver if a top flight guy like Heyward-Bey is there and is the best-guy on the board, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that all you receiver-loving birds fans, and to be honest, I don't think receiver is anywhere near our biggest need short-term or long-term. A project there might be more likely in the second or third. I'll post again before the weekend to suggest what they might do in rounds two and three.
Sheldon Brown has just gone public complaining about his contract. He is making less I think than Joselio Hanson this year, but the fact is he agreed to the big long term contract, and he has four years left on it. There is no way the Eagles do a new deal with him this year, if for no other reason that it weakens the Eagles negotiating position with McNabb. As usual, the Eagles here hold all the leverage, so expect Brown to boycott a minicamp or two but come in and play as usual. If he plays well for another two years, then maybe the Eagles will sit down with him.
I hope this works. Sheldon Brown is really, really good. There's a reason that the Eagles were trying to trade Lito and not Brown last year. Brown is a lockdown cover corner who can play press man or zone. He's a great tackler and has incredible instincts downfield and as a blitzer. They need him for at least one more year. It is strange though that the birds have brought in first round quality CB talents Vontae Davis (who scares the heck out of me that he could be another workout warrior like his brother SF tight end Vernon, whose biggest catches have come on an UnderArmour commercial) and Sean Smith (who may be an NFL safety). My guess is that is just due diligence on the part of the Birds but we'll see.
Everyone seems to think the Eagles first pick in this draft will be a RB. I tend to agree. This is by far our biggest need for this year and is also one of our more important long-term needs. Knowshon Moreno is all the rave right now, and for good reason. He's got good enough size and can do everything. He runs screens excellent and is effective both up the middle and running to the outside. He has good field vision and is capable of making two cuts behind the line of scrimmage. He is fast but not ultra fast, but he does a decent job of using his body to make defenders miss. He is excellent at making sure he always falls forward to pick up a few extra yards. From what I've read, he was also superb in blitz pickup in college, which is crucial for running backs to be able to contribute early to this complicated Eagles offense. He really does seem to be the total package, but he may not be around still at 21. I've definitely seen him linked to the Saints at 14 and the Chargers at 16 (although I'm skeptical about whether they want to invest first round money in a rookie RB with sproles making a bunch of new money). As for the Saints, I think, and hope, that Ohio State's wells, a big powerful two-down back, might be a better complement to Reggie Bush. Wells lacks the receiving experience to play a lot of downs in this Eagles offense next year. Let's hope Knowshon falls to 21, although I think if he's really their guy, the Eagles might be willing to move up to draft him. It would prob. take a 3rd to get up to 12 or 13. Plus the Eagellectual loves a guy with the word "Know" in his first name.
If Knowshon is gone when the Eagles pick, I'd look for them to trade down which many dumb eagles fans hate (but I have no problem with picking up an extra first day player). Donald Brown (UConn) and/or LeSean McCoy (Pitt) should be available in the last six picks of the first and first six picks of the second, although there is significant talk that the Colts will draft one of them with the 27th pick in the first round. The Patriots, also, might be in the market for a running back. Possible trading partners with extra picks in the second are the Giants, Patriots, Dolphins, and Browns. Brown is a fairly complete back who can do most things well, but may not be exceptional McCoy is a speedy back who can catch the ball out of the backfield. From what I read he needs to learn to play the blitz, but has the instincts to be a decent blocker--so did Westbrook when we brought him here, and now he's the best pound for pound blocking tailback in the league--the Sugar Ray Lewis of blitz pick-up, if you will. In many ways McCoy's game is like Westbrook's. He's bigger then B-West and played against better college competition, although he lacks the second gear that has made Westbrook such a scary big play threat in the NFL.
There are two wildcards here that might change the Eagles first round strategy. The first is named Brandon Pettigrew. He is a beastly large Oklahoma State tight end with very good hands and good route-running skills. He is an excellent blocker, which the Eagles desperately needed last year (but might need less this year with a healthy Shawn Andrews, joined by Jason Peters and Stacey Andrews as stud run-blockers on our line). I'm inclined to think the Eagles don't believe in drafting tight tends in the first round, especially one who lacks the speed to challenge good NFL safeties downfield, but if I'm wrong, he's there at 21 and prob. not there all that much later.
The other wildcard is Mr. Victor Abiamiri. We still don't know how good this guy is. Hopefully someone in the Eagles organization does. We need more pass rush for the other DE spot (opposite Cole), and if the Eagles don't have faith in Abiamiri, they might look to draft a DE--perhaps Michael Johnson if he falls (GA Tech) or Robert Ayers (Tenn). Andy Reid treats defensive end prospects the way he treats cheeseburgers--there's no such thing as too many, and Tom Heckert and Jim Johnson love "to throw fastballs" (maybe we should send them over to Brett Myers's house).
I suppose there's also an outside change that the Eagles could draft a first round receiver if a top flight guy like Heyward-Bey is there and is the best-guy on the board, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that all you receiver-loving birds fans, and to be honest, I don't think receiver is anywhere near our biggest need short-term or long-term. A project there might be more likely in the second or third. I'll post again before the weekend to suggest what they might do in rounds two and three.
Friday, April 17, 2009
WELCOME JASON PETERS
Let me start off with my mea culpa. In my last post, I suggested that the Eagles were unlikely to sign Peters. Thankfully I was wrong. It seems that all that talk by Reid about how ready Herremans and Andrews are to step in at left tackle (and possibly also the interest that emerged this month in stud tackle prospects Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, and Jason Smith) were mere smokescreens.
In case, you haven't heard, the Eagles today completed the initial details of a trade that will send the 28th pick in this year's draft, along with the Eagles' 4th rounder (the 121st pick), and a conditional 2010 later round pick, to Buffalo in exchange for pro bowl left tackle Jason Peters. I think this is a very reasonable price. At 28, you definitely were not going to be likely to add a tackle of Peters's caliber, and with three fifth round picks, we should be able to get back into the fourth if there's a player the eagles really would like. The truth is that I'm surprised Peters didn't cost more, and I wonder if Boldin's trade availability helped drive the Bills' price down. For the deal to be completed, the Eagles will have to sign Peters to a contract extension, but if I know the Eagles, I believe they've already worked out most of the details.
Peters is built like a house at 6'4" and 340. He has been unbeatable at times in the passing game, but at others he will give up sacks. Stats I've seen suggest that he gave up about 9 to 12 sacks last year, although he gave up far fewer the previous year. He is a younger, faster, and meaner run-blocker than Tra Thomas has been for a long time, if ever (excepting the younger part, obviously).
This is a huge move for the Eagles that now solidifies their line. What seemed like their biggest issue going into this offseason has been reshuffled and I think improved with a line that will be (from left to right): Peters, Herremans, Jackson (or possibly Cole), Andrews, Andrews. This is a line that we all should be excited about.
Look for a post this weekend or early next week to discuss how this will affect their draft, but don't expect them to trade the other first for a receiver, but now we also don't need to worry about drafting a tackle. The Eagles have always been willing to pay bigtime contracts to stud players at select positions: OT, QB, DE, and CB, and this is another example. I know a lot of us would like to see a stud WR, but I'm pretty sure they would rather spend the money on a stud OT, and I think that's probably the right move (and he cost less in draft picks, and prob. similar salary than the Cards are reportedly seeking for Boldin, and less than the Stinkin Cowboys gave up for Roy Williams, who incidentally, I heard was converted to born-again Christianity by the Lions' kicker before he left Detroit, but I digress). Go Birds!
In case, you haven't heard, the Eagles today completed the initial details of a trade that will send the 28th pick in this year's draft, along with the Eagles' 4th rounder (the 121st pick), and a conditional 2010 later round pick, to Buffalo in exchange for pro bowl left tackle Jason Peters. I think this is a very reasonable price. At 28, you definitely were not going to be likely to add a tackle of Peters's caliber, and with three fifth round picks, we should be able to get back into the fourth if there's a player the eagles really would like. The truth is that I'm surprised Peters didn't cost more, and I wonder if Boldin's trade availability helped drive the Bills' price down. For the deal to be completed, the Eagles will have to sign Peters to a contract extension, but if I know the Eagles, I believe they've already worked out most of the details.
Peters is built like a house at 6'4" and 340. He has been unbeatable at times in the passing game, but at others he will give up sacks. Stats I've seen suggest that he gave up about 9 to 12 sacks last year, although he gave up far fewer the previous year. He is a younger, faster, and meaner run-blocker than Tra Thomas has been for a long time, if ever (excepting the younger part, obviously).
This is a huge move for the Eagles that now solidifies their line. What seemed like their biggest issue going into this offseason has been reshuffled and I think improved with a line that will be (from left to right): Peters, Herremans, Jackson (or possibly Cole), Andrews, Andrews. This is a line that we all should be excited about.
Look for a post this weekend or early next week to discuss how this will affect their draft, but don't expect them to trade the other first for a receiver, but now we also don't need to worry about drafting a tackle. The Eagles have always been willing to pay bigtime contracts to stud players at select positions: OT, QB, DE, and CB, and this is another example. I know a lot of us would like to see a stud WR, but I'm pretty sure they would rather spend the money on a stud OT, and I think that's probably the right move (and he cost less in draft picks, and prob. similar salary than the Cards are reportedly seeking for Boldin, and less than the Stinkin Cowboys gave up for Roy Williams, who incidentally, I heard was converted to born-again Christianity by the Lions' kicker before he left Detroit, but I digress). Go Birds!
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)