The big talk since the Peters trade is the question of whether the Eagle would still consider trading for Boldin. My inclination is to say no. Supposedly the Cards are seeking a first and a third, and Boldin is seeking a contract in the neighborhood of 4 years for 40 million dollars. It's hard to imagine the Eagles giving up more in picks and as much in annual salary for a wide receiver than they did for an offensive tackle, a position the Eagles clearly value more. It wouldn't be a total shock if they moved for him, but my guess is the recent language out of Joe Banner about doing whatever they can to help the team when asked about Boldin is simply an effort to drive up Boldin's price in case the Giants make a move at him. If I had to predict though, Boldin will be more likely to end up either in the AFC (maybe Baltimore?) or still on Arizona.
Sheldon Brown has just gone public complaining about his contract. He is making less I think than Joselio Hanson this year, but the fact is he agreed to the big long term contract, and he has four years left on it. There is no way the Eagles do a new deal with him this year, if for no other reason that it weakens the Eagles negotiating position with McNabb. As usual, the Eagles here hold all the leverage, so expect Brown to boycott a minicamp or two but come in and play as usual. If he plays well for another two years, then maybe the Eagles will sit down with him.
I hope this works. Sheldon Brown is really, really good. There's a reason that the Eagles were trying to trade Lito and not Brown last year. Brown is a lockdown cover corner who can play press man or zone. He's a great tackler and has incredible instincts downfield and as a blitzer. They need him for at least one more year. It is strange though that the birds have brought in first round quality CB talents Vontae Davis (who scares the heck out of me that he could be another workout warrior like his brother SF tight end Vernon, whose biggest catches have come on an UnderArmour commercial) and Sean Smith (who may be an NFL safety). My guess is that is just due diligence on the part of the Birds but we'll see.
Everyone seems to think the Eagles first pick in this draft will be a RB. I tend to agree. This is by far our biggest need for this year and is also one of our more important long-term needs. Knowshon Moreno is all the rave right now, and for good reason. He's got good enough size and can do everything. He runs screens excellent and is effective both up the middle and running to the outside. He has good field vision and is capable of making two cuts behind the line of scrimmage. He is fast but not ultra fast, but he does a decent job of using his body to make defenders miss. He is excellent at making sure he always falls forward to pick up a few extra yards. From what I've read, he was also superb in blitz pickup in college, which is crucial for running backs to be able to contribute early to this complicated Eagles offense. He really does seem to be the total package, but he may not be around still at 21. I've definitely seen him linked to the Saints at 14 and the Chargers at 16 (although I'm skeptical about whether they want to invest first round money in a rookie RB with sproles making a bunch of new money). As for the Saints, I think, and hope, that Ohio State's wells, a big powerful two-down back, might be a better complement to Reggie Bush. Wells lacks the receiving experience to play a lot of downs in this Eagles offense next year. Let's hope Knowshon falls to 21, although I think if he's really their guy, the Eagles might be willing to move up to draft him. It would prob. take a 3rd to get up to 12 or 13. Plus the Eagellectual loves a guy with the word "Know" in his first name.
If Knowshon is gone when the Eagles pick, I'd look for them to trade down which many dumb eagles fans hate (but I have no problem with picking up an extra first day player). Donald Brown (UConn) and/or LeSean McCoy (Pitt) should be available in the last six picks of the first and first six picks of the second, although there is significant talk that the Colts will draft one of them with the 27th pick in the first round. The Patriots, also, might be in the market for a running back. Possible trading partners with extra picks in the second are the Giants, Patriots, Dolphins, and Browns. Brown is a fairly complete back who can do most things well, but may not be exceptional McCoy is a speedy back who can catch the ball out of the backfield. From what I read he needs to learn to play the blitz, but has the instincts to be a decent blocker--so did Westbrook when we brought him here, and now he's the best pound for pound blocking tailback in the league--the Sugar Ray Lewis of blitz pick-up, if you will. In many ways McCoy's game is like Westbrook's. He's bigger then B-West and played against better college competition, although he lacks the second gear that has made Westbrook such a scary big play threat in the NFL.
There are two wildcards here that might change the Eagles first round strategy. The first is named Brandon Pettigrew. He is a beastly large Oklahoma State tight end with very good hands and good route-running skills. He is an excellent blocker, which the Eagles desperately needed last year (but might need less this year with a healthy Shawn Andrews, joined by Jason Peters and Stacey Andrews as stud run-blockers on our line). I'm inclined to think the Eagles don't believe in drafting tight tends in the first round, especially one who lacks the speed to challenge good NFL safeties downfield, but if I'm wrong, he's there at 21 and prob. not there all that much later.
The other wildcard is Mr. Victor Abiamiri. We still don't know how good this guy is. Hopefully someone in the Eagles organization does. We need more pass rush for the other DE spot (opposite Cole), and if the Eagles don't have faith in Abiamiri, they might look to draft a DE--perhaps Michael Johnson if he falls (GA Tech) or Robert Ayers (Tenn). Andy Reid treats defensive end prospects the way he treats cheeseburgers--there's no such thing as too many, and Tom Heckert and Jim Johnson love "to throw fastballs" (maybe we should send them over to Brett Myers's house).
I suppose there's also an outside change that the Eagles could draft a first round receiver if a top flight guy like Heyward-Bey is there and is the best-guy on the board, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that all you receiver-loving birds fans, and to be honest, I don't think receiver is anywhere near our biggest need short-term or long-term. A project there might be more likely in the second or third. I'll post again before the weekend to suggest what they might do in rounds two and three.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
WELCOME JASON PETERS
Let me start off with my mea culpa. In my last post, I suggested that the Eagles were unlikely to sign Peters. Thankfully I was wrong. It seems that all that talk by Reid about how ready Herremans and Andrews are to step in at left tackle (and possibly also the interest that emerged this month in stud tackle prospects Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, and Jason Smith) were mere smokescreens.
In case, you haven't heard, the Eagles today completed the initial details of a trade that will send the 28th pick in this year's draft, along with the Eagles' 4th rounder (the 121st pick), and a conditional 2010 later round pick, to Buffalo in exchange for pro bowl left tackle Jason Peters. I think this is a very reasonable price. At 28, you definitely were not going to be likely to add a tackle of Peters's caliber, and with three fifth round picks, we should be able to get back into the fourth if there's a player the eagles really would like. The truth is that I'm surprised Peters didn't cost more, and I wonder if Boldin's trade availability helped drive the Bills' price down. For the deal to be completed, the Eagles will have to sign Peters to a contract extension, but if I know the Eagles, I believe they've already worked out most of the details.
Peters is built like a house at 6'4" and 340. He has been unbeatable at times in the passing game, but at others he will give up sacks. Stats I've seen suggest that he gave up about 9 to 12 sacks last year, although he gave up far fewer the previous year. He is a younger, faster, and meaner run-blocker than Tra Thomas has been for a long time, if ever (excepting the younger part, obviously).
This is a huge move for the Eagles that now solidifies their line. What seemed like their biggest issue going into this offseason has been reshuffled and I think improved with a line that will be (from left to right): Peters, Herremans, Jackson (or possibly Cole), Andrews, Andrews. This is a line that we all should be excited about.
Look for a post this weekend or early next week to discuss how this will affect their draft, but don't expect them to trade the other first for a receiver, but now we also don't need to worry about drafting a tackle. The Eagles have always been willing to pay bigtime contracts to stud players at select positions: OT, QB, DE, and CB, and this is another example. I know a lot of us would like to see a stud WR, but I'm pretty sure they would rather spend the money on a stud OT, and I think that's probably the right move (and he cost less in draft picks, and prob. similar salary than the Cards are reportedly seeking for Boldin, and less than the Stinkin Cowboys gave up for Roy Williams, who incidentally, I heard was converted to born-again Christianity by the Lions' kicker before he left Detroit, but I digress). Go Birds!
In case, you haven't heard, the Eagles today completed the initial details of a trade that will send the 28th pick in this year's draft, along with the Eagles' 4th rounder (the 121st pick), and a conditional 2010 later round pick, to Buffalo in exchange for pro bowl left tackle Jason Peters. I think this is a very reasonable price. At 28, you definitely were not going to be likely to add a tackle of Peters's caliber, and with three fifth round picks, we should be able to get back into the fourth if there's a player the eagles really would like. The truth is that I'm surprised Peters didn't cost more, and I wonder if Boldin's trade availability helped drive the Bills' price down. For the deal to be completed, the Eagles will have to sign Peters to a contract extension, but if I know the Eagles, I believe they've already worked out most of the details.
Peters is built like a house at 6'4" and 340. He has been unbeatable at times in the passing game, but at others he will give up sacks. Stats I've seen suggest that he gave up about 9 to 12 sacks last year, although he gave up far fewer the previous year. He is a younger, faster, and meaner run-blocker than Tra Thomas has been for a long time, if ever (excepting the younger part, obviously).
This is a huge move for the Eagles that now solidifies their line. What seemed like their biggest issue going into this offseason has been reshuffled and I think improved with a line that will be (from left to right): Peters, Herremans, Jackson (or possibly Cole), Andrews, Andrews. This is a line that we all should be excited about.
Look for a post this weekend or early next week to discuss how this will affect their draft, but don't expect them to trade the other first for a receiver, but now we also don't need to worry about drafting a tackle. The Eagles have always been willing to pay bigtime contracts to stud players at select positions: OT, QB, DE, and CB, and this is another example. I know a lot of us would like to see a stud WR, but I'm pretty sure they would rather spend the money on a stud OT, and I think that's probably the right move (and he cost less in draft picks, and prob. similar salary than the Cards are reportedly seeking for Boldin, and less than the Stinkin Cowboys gave up for Roy Williams, who incidentally, I heard was converted to born-again Christianity by the Lions' kicker before he left Detroit, but I digress). Go Birds!
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Looking at the Offseason's First Month
As has been widely noted, the Eagles still have a ton of cap room (in excess of 20 million dollars). Many think this could be a prelude to a trade for Braylon Edwards and Anquan Boldin, especially given the Eagles have 12 draft picks this year. I’d love to see it and wouldn’t rule either out entirely, but probably both will stay put, and if Edwards moves, right now it’s looking like the G-men may be the main candidate for his services. Don’t assume the cap room means they’ll go overpay for someone. They have a lot of their core young players who will be free agents in the next few years. Expect them to try to get extension deals done with Bradley, Celek, and Mikell and possibly some of the following: Jason Avant, Max Jean-Gilles, Akeem Jordan, Chris Gocong, Broderick Bunkley, Nick Cole (again depending on the state of the CBA, see below), not to mention the possibility they still might want to extend McNabb.
After one month of the offseason, let’s take a look back at where the Eagles are.
Right out the gate, the Eagles signed Stacy Andrews providing the Eagles with a BIG BIG run-blocker to go alongside his brother Shawn (and help keep baby bro on an even keel hopefully). The questions with Stacy are whether he’s a quick enough pass blocker to play right tackle at a high level (he’s almost certainly not quick enough to play the left side) and whether his acl has sufficiently healed by labor day. If we can trust Bengals Head Coach Marvin Lewis (and I don’t think we have any reason not to), Stacy should be ready to go by training camp, maybe sooner. Lewis, as reported by the Inquirer, was actually pretty miffed to have lost his right tackle, who used the Bengals facilities and training staff to rehab until his contract in Cinci ended in February. Despite all these question marks, this man is a load, and, as a scholarship shotputter who began balling in college, he’s still learning the game—he’s got one heck of an upside. So the right side seems to be locked down probably with one of the Andrews brothers playing RT. At right guard the options are plentiful with Shawn Andrews, Stacy (if Shawn moves outside on the right), Nick Cole, and Max Jean-Gilles all viable starters.
The bigger question mark is on the left side, where the Eagles have let Tra Thomas walk. From everything I’m hearing, I’m really starting to think that your starting left tackle is already on this roster. I’m not sure whether it will be Herremans or Andrews, but I think it will be one of them. Expect Jean-Gilles and Cole to compete for the vacated guard spot. Also, there is an outside chance that the Eagles bring back Runyan and let Stacy play guard if Runyan’s microfracturized knee heels right, quick enough, an unlikely prospect. The more I look at it, the less I’m thinking the Eagles will draft an OT at 21—if Oher falls, his raw talent might be too much to pass up, but I don’t think he will. Look for the Eagles to also consider upgrading their interior line. Jamaal Jackson was definitely disappointing, though serviceable, the past two seasons after showing so much promise during the Garcia run in 2006. Look for Cole, and possibly 2008 draft pick Mike McGlynn to press Jackson for playing time. Also, forget the baloney about Jason Peters—that’s not going to happen. All the stories about him in the Inky are just about people triying to create stories during these slow moments in the NFL offseason. Peters will be too expensive and cost too much in trade value, and might not be all that much better, in Andy’s mind, then the guys they already have.
After the OL the next biggest issue for this team is in the backfield. Westbrook needs a complementary player. Leonard Weaver will help to fill that role. The guy is a load, with a forearm shiver that would make Hulk Hogan jealous. Check out some of his stiffarms on youtube. I have a feeling 3rd and 1 won’t be nearly as much of a problem this year. Weaver is a good, if not pro-bowl caliber, lead-blocker and a definite improvement over everyone we’ve had since pre-injury John Ritichie. He also knows the West Coast offense and is a threat to carry the ball (over 4 yards career average) as well as to catch the ball out of the backfield. More below on making sense about why the Eagles only did a one-year deal. Now the big concern remaining is a backup tailback, and I’d like it to be one who can complement Westbrook now, but also take over for him in a couple years, or if he gets hurt. Look for the Eagles to use a first-rounder or second-rounder (and I could definitely see them packaging some later picks to move up higher in the second round) on a running back like Knowshon Moreno (UGA), Donald Brown (UConn), or LeSean McCoy (Pitt). I suspect they won’t be interested in Ohio State’s Beanie Wells, who will likely be gone anyway by 21, because of his inexperience receiving. Receiving stats in college are actually one of the better ways to predict NFL success for running backs, and this is especially important if we’re drafting the future number one back in our west coast offense.
TE is another area of real interest that I think, at this point, will also be addressed in the draft, about which more to come in a future post. I bring this up mainly as a segue into our Don’t let the door hit you on the way out department. New Ravens TE L.J. Smith is already complaining that the Eagles didn’t use him well enough. It’s hard to even respond to the jaw-dropping suggestion that Andy Reid was responsible for Little John’s sucktastic season last year, in which he missed multiple key blocks on crucial short yardage situations, not to mention disappearing for most of the season in the passing game and still running with the ball like it’s a dirty diaper that should be held as far as possible from his body.
Eagellectual reader Mike the Lawyer has suggested this letter that Andy Reid might have sent to Smith in response:
Dear Little John,
I have been made aware of your comments about how I could havehandled thing differently last season. I too think you could havehandled things differently. Primarily, you could have remembered that NFL tight ends are supposed to block. The object behind blocking, you see, is to keep the defensive player in front of you. You are not supposed to let people you are blocking push you out of the way, and you are definitely not supposed to do this in the Red Zone, which seemed to be your favorite place for daydreaming. Also, although of somewhat less importance, you should put your arms and hands around the ball when it hits you in the chest. Do not wait until the ball hits the ground before trying to catch it. In the future please talk to me directly (you can always call me at the NovaCare Center cafeteria). I once had such hope for you—Remember I drafted you ahead of Jason Witten. You broke my heart Fredo.
Best,Big Red
Alright, joking aside, let’s look at the defense. Dawk had a great career here, and will probably go down as the best safety between Ronnie Lott and Ed Reed, but he has slowed down considerably. In what seems, if you read the Eagles message boards, to be the worst tragedy to befall Philadelphia since the Legionnaire’s disease outbreak, or at least since the Joe Carter game-winner in 1993, Brian Dawkins has left us. I say it’s time for us to move on. That’s football. I like Quintin Demps a lot and I think the Eagles do too. Quintin Mikell is an absolute stud, and recent signee Sean Jones has shown flashes of excellence, giving the Eagles a real nice three-man mix that I think should be very productive. I like the addition of Rashad Baker for depth, especially since he can replace Greg Lewis as the gunner (first man down the field whose job is to dictate the direction of the returner) on punt coverage.
The one year contracts for Baker, Jones, and Weaver raises an interesting question about what the Eagles have planned. It is important to understand these deals in the context of the current collective bargaining agreement. The best stuff on this has appeared on Mike Florio’s Profootballtalk,com, but basically the CBA is set to go to an uncapped year in 2010, the last year of the current deal. The NFLPA has insisted that once they go uncapped they’ll never go back. So if there is no deal done soon, the likely result is an uncapped year in 2010 followed by an owner’s lockout in 2011, and then who knows how they work that out. I think that there’s a good chance they’ll do a new deal, but no one knows what that will look like, so I think the Eagles may be assuming, probably correctly, that whatever deal gets done, they’ll have a better idea how to exploit that CBA sooner than the players’ agents will, so it’s better not to negotiate long-term deals when they might be able to get a better deal the following year. If the CBA does not get reworked, there are some other important details about 2010, in addition to there being no salary cap, there is also no salary floor, but more importantly, any players with less than six years of service, including every 2010 Eagles free agent except Klecko, including Weaver and Jones, would become restricted free agents, tenderable for a one year deal at a percentage increase of their 2009 salary, and giving the Eagles a right to match or receive draft pick compensation and draft pick compensation should they sign with another team. Additionally, there is the issue that Jones thinks he is a pro-bowler and the Eagles may really just be renting him as insurance against any disappointments by Demps, whereas with Weaver, he wants to be paid less like a fullback and more like a tailback. It would not be a huge surprise to see the Eagles draft a FB in the mid-roudns. If they get one that can make the roster over Eckel, he’ll have a chance to replace Weaver in a year, depending on Weaver’s 2010 salary demands, and of course, on who know what will happen with the CBA.
The other main issue with the defensive personnel is the pass rush. For now, it’s looking like the organization is confident that Abiamiri can give them more than he did last year and that maybe last year’s 3rd rounder Bryan Smith and/or Chris Clemons can contribute more. We shall see.
Perhaps the biggest concern with the defense is who’ll be calling the plays. Eagellectual reader, and physician, Dr. Cocoa has raised some real concerns about the prognosis for a diagnosis like Johnson’s, although the organization has been surprisingly positive about him, and has said that he has been at work regularly, so we’ll have to see. Obviously every Eagles fan hopes Johnson can have a speedy and complete recovery. If Johnson has to miss any time, I do think the Eagles feel very confident that Secondary Coach Sean McDermott can fill in for him.
After one month of the offseason, let’s take a look back at where the Eagles are.
Right out the gate, the Eagles signed Stacy Andrews providing the Eagles with a BIG BIG run-blocker to go alongside his brother Shawn (and help keep baby bro on an even keel hopefully). The questions with Stacy are whether he’s a quick enough pass blocker to play right tackle at a high level (he’s almost certainly not quick enough to play the left side) and whether his acl has sufficiently healed by labor day. If we can trust Bengals Head Coach Marvin Lewis (and I don’t think we have any reason not to), Stacy should be ready to go by training camp, maybe sooner. Lewis, as reported by the Inquirer, was actually pretty miffed to have lost his right tackle, who used the Bengals facilities and training staff to rehab until his contract in Cinci ended in February. Despite all these question marks, this man is a load, and, as a scholarship shotputter who began balling in college, he’s still learning the game—he’s got one heck of an upside. So the right side seems to be locked down probably with one of the Andrews brothers playing RT. At right guard the options are plentiful with Shawn Andrews, Stacy (if Shawn moves outside on the right), Nick Cole, and Max Jean-Gilles all viable starters.
The bigger question mark is on the left side, where the Eagles have let Tra Thomas walk. From everything I’m hearing, I’m really starting to think that your starting left tackle is already on this roster. I’m not sure whether it will be Herremans or Andrews, but I think it will be one of them. Expect Jean-Gilles and Cole to compete for the vacated guard spot. Also, there is an outside chance that the Eagles bring back Runyan and let Stacy play guard if Runyan’s microfracturized knee heels right, quick enough, an unlikely prospect. The more I look at it, the less I’m thinking the Eagles will draft an OT at 21—if Oher falls, his raw talent might be too much to pass up, but I don’t think he will. Look for the Eagles to also consider upgrading their interior line. Jamaal Jackson was definitely disappointing, though serviceable, the past two seasons after showing so much promise during the Garcia run in 2006. Look for Cole, and possibly 2008 draft pick Mike McGlynn to press Jackson for playing time. Also, forget the baloney about Jason Peters—that’s not going to happen. All the stories about him in the Inky are just about people triying to create stories during these slow moments in the NFL offseason. Peters will be too expensive and cost too much in trade value, and might not be all that much better, in Andy’s mind, then the guys they already have.
After the OL the next biggest issue for this team is in the backfield. Westbrook needs a complementary player. Leonard Weaver will help to fill that role. The guy is a load, with a forearm shiver that would make Hulk Hogan jealous. Check out some of his stiffarms on youtube. I have a feeling 3rd and 1 won’t be nearly as much of a problem this year. Weaver is a good, if not pro-bowl caliber, lead-blocker and a definite improvement over everyone we’ve had since pre-injury John Ritichie. He also knows the West Coast offense and is a threat to carry the ball (over 4 yards career average) as well as to catch the ball out of the backfield. More below on making sense about why the Eagles only did a one-year deal. Now the big concern remaining is a backup tailback, and I’d like it to be one who can complement Westbrook now, but also take over for him in a couple years, or if he gets hurt. Look for the Eagles to use a first-rounder or second-rounder (and I could definitely see them packaging some later picks to move up higher in the second round) on a running back like Knowshon Moreno (UGA), Donald Brown (UConn), or LeSean McCoy (Pitt). I suspect they won’t be interested in Ohio State’s Beanie Wells, who will likely be gone anyway by 21, because of his inexperience receiving. Receiving stats in college are actually one of the better ways to predict NFL success for running backs, and this is especially important if we’re drafting the future number one back in our west coast offense.
TE is another area of real interest that I think, at this point, will also be addressed in the draft, about which more to come in a future post. I bring this up mainly as a segue into our Don’t let the door hit you on the way out department. New Ravens TE L.J. Smith is already complaining that the Eagles didn’t use him well enough. It’s hard to even respond to the jaw-dropping suggestion that Andy Reid was responsible for Little John’s sucktastic season last year, in which he missed multiple key blocks on crucial short yardage situations, not to mention disappearing for most of the season in the passing game and still running with the ball like it’s a dirty diaper that should be held as far as possible from his body.
Eagellectual reader Mike the Lawyer has suggested this letter that Andy Reid might have sent to Smith in response:
Dear Little John,
I have been made aware of your comments about how I could havehandled thing differently last season. I too think you could havehandled things differently. Primarily, you could have remembered that NFL tight ends are supposed to block. The object behind blocking, you see, is to keep the defensive player in front of you. You are not supposed to let people you are blocking push you out of the way, and you are definitely not supposed to do this in the Red Zone, which seemed to be your favorite place for daydreaming. Also, although of somewhat less importance, you should put your arms and hands around the ball when it hits you in the chest. Do not wait until the ball hits the ground before trying to catch it. In the future please talk to me directly (you can always call me at the NovaCare Center cafeteria). I once had such hope for you—Remember I drafted you ahead of Jason Witten. You broke my heart Fredo.
Best,Big Red
Alright, joking aside, let’s look at the defense. Dawk had a great career here, and will probably go down as the best safety between Ronnie Lott and Ed Reed, but he has slowed down considerably. In what seems, if you read the Eagles message boards, to be the worst tragedy to befall Philadelphia since the Legionnaire’s disease outbreak, or at least since the Joe Carter game-winner in 1993, Brian Dawkins has left us. I say it’s time for us to move on. That’s football. I like Quintin Demps a lot and I think the Eagles do too. Quintin Mikell is an absolute stud, and recent signee Sean Jones has shown flashes of excellence, giving the Eagles a real nice three-man mix that I think should be very productive. I like the addition of Rashad Baker for depth, especially since he can replace Greg Lewis as the gunner (first man down the field whose job is to dictate the direction of the returner) on punt coverage.
The one year contracts for Baker, Jones, and Weaver raises an interesting question about what the Eagles have planned. It is important to understand these deals in the context of the current collective bargaining agreement. The best stuff on this has appeared on Mike Florio’s Profootballtalk,com, but basically the CBA is set to go to an uncapped year in 2010, the last year of the current deal. The NFLPA has insisted that once they go uncapped they’ll never go back. So if there is no deal done soon, the likely result is an uncapped year in 2010 followed by an owner’s lockout in 2011, and then who knows how they work that out. I think that there’s a good chance they’ll do a new deal, but no one knows what that will look like, so I think the Eagles may be assuming, probably correctly, that whatever deal gets done, they’ll have a better idea how to exploit that CBA sooner than the players’ agents will, so it’s better not to negotiate long-term deals when they might be able to get a better deal the following year. If the CBA does not get reworked, there are some other important details about 2010, in addition to there being no salary cap, there is also no salary floor, but more importantly, any players with less than six years of service, including every 2010 Eagles free agent except Klecko, including Weaver and Jones, would become restricted free agents, tenderable for a one year deal at a percentage increase of their 2009 salary, and giving the Eagles a right to match or receive draft pick compensation and draft pick compensation should they sign with another team. Additionally, there is the issue that Jones thinks he is a pro-bowler and the Eagles may really just be renting him as insurance against any disappointments by Demps, whereas with Weaver, he wants to be paid less like a fullback and more like a tailback. It would not be a huge surprise to see the Eagles draft a FB in the mid-roudns. If they get one that can make the roster over Eckel, he’ll have a chance to replace Weaver in a year, depending on Weaver’s 2010 salary demands, and of course, on who know what will happen with the CBA.
The other main issue with the defensive personnel is the pass rush. For now, it’s looking like the organization is confident that Abiamiri can give them more than he did last year and that maybe last year’s 3rd rounder Bryan Smith and/or Chris Clemons can contribute more. We shall see.
Perhaps the biggest concern with the defense is who’ll be calling the plays. Eagellectual reader, and physician, Dr. Cocoa has raised some real concerns about the prognosis for a diagnosis like Johnson’s, although the organization has been surprisingly positive about him, and has said that he has been at work regularly, so we’ll have to see. Obviously every Eagles fan hopes Johnson can have a speedy and complete recovery. If Johnson has to miss any time, I do think the Eagles feel very confident that Secondary Coach Sean McDermott can fill in for him.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Fare Thee Well Tra Thomas
Well I guess I was wrong about Tra Thomas. The Jaguars webpage is reporting that he has signed to a three year deal. I am sure the Eagles were not interested in offering Tra three years, but the significance of that 3 year number won't really be clear until details of the contract become available. This leaves a gaping hole in the roster with few obvious options. It looks like we'll be most likely crossing our fingers that between a first round draft pick, Dunlap, Justice, Herremans, and Shawn Andrews, one of them can play left tackle. The only left tackles of note on the market now are Khalif Barnes, who has not fully lived up to his potential, and Orlando Pace who is on the trading block right now, but prob. won't get traded b/c no one will want to pay down his contract. If he gets cut, and we can get him on a "prove-it" deal, I'd take a flier on Pace for a year until some of the younger talent develops. We'll have to see what happens but this is now officially the Eagles biggest question mark. Figuring out this left tackle spot could potentially make as big a difference as being a 7-9 versus an 11-5 team. When Andy Reid came here, he looked at our offense and saw Tra Thomas as the only player he could be excited about. While Tra was, in my mind, often a bit overrated, he was solid as both a pass and run-blocker every year he was healthy, and great as a pass-blocker in a few of those years. I'm anxious as hell about what they do to replace him.
Friday, March 6, 2009
(An attempted) Evaluation of the Offseason, one week in
Well, the first week of the 2009-2010 NFL season has officially passed us by and the Eagles have been active, but not perhaps so much as many of us would like. Overall, though, I remain optimistic—Let’s look at some of their recent moves, and non-moves.
Going into this season the Eagles had about $40 million in cap room. Official terms of Stacy Andrews’s contract have not been disclosed but it is believed that the first year cap number is somewhere around 7 million dollars, leaving the Eagles with 33 million. DO NOT ASSUME THEY WILL SPEND ALL OF THIS. They won’t. During this season, they will likely be trying to do several new contracts with young players who have shown promise. Stewart Bradley (contact goes through 2010), Quintin Mikell (2010), Broderick Bunkley (2011), and Desean Jackson (2011) are obvious players the eagles would probably like to extend. They also might be looking to do deals with Chris Gocong (2009), Victor Abiamiri (2010), and Akeem Jordan (2010). Also, even though Sheldon is under contract through 2012, I think that we need to think about redoing his contract—he’s making less than Hanson is now, and Sheldon is, in my opinion, one of the best in the game. I think all of this will have to wait until we have a little better idea about how CBA talks are progressing and whether we can expect 2010 to have a salary cap or be an uncapped year, but I expect the eagles want to have some money left to do some of these extensions.
In order of importance, let’s start with the Offensive tackle position.
I like the Stacy Andrews signing—as long as he’s healthy. He is huge and he can move, and he’s still learning the game (went to college on a discus scholarship then got cajoled into playing football), so his upside is huge, provided his knee is strong again. Doesn’t hurt that he can play next to his brother and be a support system for Shawn. Stacy gave up about 9 sacks last year though, so against good left DEs we may need to protect him with a TE or with a chipping running back. Another possibility is that he and his brother flip guard and tackle. I think what the eagles have been doing here is basically stockpiling guys they think can play line and not worrying a ton about position right now—which is fine for the four right positions on the line but not for left tackle.
So what about that LT 600 pound (or preferably 320-335 pound) elephant in the middle of the room. Here’s my hunch: Tra Thomas is still the Eagles starting LT next year. The fact that no one has met with him to talk contract yet is a big indicator that Thomas is asking, and asked the Eagles for, way too much. I would expect him and the Eagles to start talking again next week or the week after if no one else is expressing interest. I’ve heard some rumblings that Shawn Andrews could play LT—I’m willing to accept that that could be a possibility, but it’s not really what I’m looking for. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Stacy Andrews's Herremans’s ability to be a starting NFL LT, so I really do think we need to try to bring Thomas back while we groom his replacement.
I suspect Winston Justice is really on the outs here. I’ve seen nothing to show me he can play the left side and the Eagles didn’t seem to want him to be their primary backup there last year, and now that they’ve signed Stacy Andrews, it is hard to imagine they envision Justice having a future at RT (something I really did hope might work out). Look for King Dunlap to compete with a first or second round draft pick to be Thomas’s backup for a year or two and then replace him.
All quiet on the Defensive End front—as I’ve said before this could be Ok, depending on how good Abiamiri and Clemons really can be. Let’s see what happens with this one.
Defensive backs:
Great signing by the Eagles on Joselio Hanson. The guy can play.
I’m not going to belabor it, but of course we’ll all miss Dawkins. The contract he got was more than he’s worth, flat out. I’m not sure he was so overpaid that the Eagles couldn’t have considered overpaying a bit to keep him around, but I’m more than OK that they didn’t. They made a business decision and so did he—now it’s time to move on.
We’re set at corner as far as I’m concerned, with one of the better tandems in the league with Samuels and Brown and Joselio Hanson at the nickel (did I mention I like Joselio Hanson?), and Jack Ikeguono, a kid with all the promise in the world (now that he can afford his own x-box ... and quality legal representation).
At safety, I had been thinking we will see a lot of Demps this year, but interestingly, the Eagles just last night announced that they’re bringing in Browns SS Sean Jones and that he is scheduled to meet the media this afternoon (a telltale sign, usually, that the Eagles will be getting him under contract). I’m not sure what they have in mind for him. One possibility is to move Mikell over to FS, where he played as a backup earlier in his career. Another possibility is that Jones would be used like the Eagles used Dawkins the second half of last year, lining up as an FS but playing like SS/LB on nearly half the plays he’s on the field and having Demps lined up as a deep FS on obvious passing downs. It will be interesting to see, but I think Jim Johnson probably would be happy to be able to shuffle around three quality safeties, and the whole move Mikell over and just start Jones at SS plan remains a good possibility to have on the table in case Demps fails to meet expectations.
Offensive Skill positions:
Kudos to the Birds for getting anything for Greg Lewis (a 2009 5th in exchange for G-Lew and a 2010 7th). Fortunately for us Bill Belichik has a nice little man-crush on G-Lew. We’ll miss him a bit on special teams but someone else with speed can play that role (Jack I???). As a receiver he’s been a liability for a while. He just drops too many balls, so Bon voyage Greg Lewis. Incidentally, the comment boards on the Boston globe story about G-Lew are hilarious—fans are thinking that Lewis is the next Joe Jurevicius or Bobby Engram, like he’s going to be a great third receiver that’s going to reshape what their offense can do—one comment even suggested his deep speed would help open things up for Randy Moss (I kid you not).
As of now there really aren’t any WRs worth signing. Houshmanzadeh, I think, got way mre than he would have been worth to the Eagles, esp. when WR is not our primary need.
However, if Braylon Edwards and Anquan Boldin really are on the trade block, well, I’m salivating. Don’t be fooled by last season, Edwards is a beast—and his market value is about as low as it will ever be. Boldin obviously would be a great complement to Jackson and Curtis. I’d give a first and third for either in a heartbeat, although I think we could prob. get Edwards for a second, third, and fifth, or a first and fourth.
At TE there have been rumblings about trading for Tony Scheffler of the Broncos, who doesn’t fit with Daniel Graham into Josh McDaniels’s 3WR 1 TE system—I actually had a dream about the Birds acquiring Scheffler. Scheffler is a great pure receiving TE—he’s fast with good hands—think a more athletic, more promising version of Schoebel. I think he's faster than Celek and he’d give us another weapon, but probably we really need a second TE who can contribute more as a run-blocker. The most obvious person to fit that bill is rookie-to-be Brandon Pettigrew, a strong blocker and decent receiver who will certainly be available at 21 and may be available at 28.
As for a backup RB for Westbrook, expect the Eagles to draft a first day RB. There’s really no one out there on the open market who’s worth anything.
Fullback
Ahh, the fullback, my pet issue. If only Andy Reid pined for a fullback as deeply as I do. Somewhere in the recesses of his mind though, there is a kernel of respect for the fullback position, I have to believe there must be. Otherwise he couldn’t have signed John Ritchie way back when. The first movement on the FB market just happened last night with the Saints signing Heath Evans, so look for other FBs to start signing in the coming weeks now that a market has been set. I’m crossing my fingers for Leonard Weaver or Terrelle Smith.
Well, we’re one week in, so there’s still a lot more to come. As always, the Eagellectual can’t wait.
Going into this season the Eagles had about $40 million in cap room. Official terms of Stacy Andrews’s contract have not been disclosed but it is believed that the first year cap number is somewhere around 7 million dollars, leaving the Eagles with 33 million. DO NOT ASSUME THEY WILL SPEND ALL OF THIS. They won’t. During this season, they will likely be trying to do several new contracts with young players who have shown promise. Stewart Bradley (contact goes through 2010), Quintin Mikell (2010), Broderick Bunkley (2011), and Desean Jackson (2011) are obvious players the eagles would probably like to extend. They also might be looking to do deals with Chris Gocong (2009), Victor Abiamiri (2010), and Akeem Jordan (2010). Also, even though Sheldon is under contract through 2012, I think that we need to think about redoing his contract—he’s making less than Hanson is now, and Sheldon is, in my opinion, one of the best in the game. I think all of this will have to wait until we have a little better idea about how CBA talks are progressing and whether we can expect 2010 to have a salary cap or be an uncapped year, but I expect the eagles want to have some money left to do some of these extensions.
In order of importance, let’s start with the Offensive tackle position.
I like the Stacy Andrews signing—as long as he’s healthy. He is huge and he can move, and he’s still learning the game (went to college on a discus scholarship then got cajoled into playing football), so his upside is huge, provided his knee is strong again. Doesn’t hurt that he can play next to his brother and be a support system for Shawn. Stacy gave up about 9 sacks last year though, so against good left DEs we may need to protect him with a TE or with a chipping running back. Another possibility is that he and his brother flip guard and tackle. I think what the eagles have been doing here is basically stockpiling guys they think can play line and not worrying a ton about position right now—which is fine for the four right positions on the line but not for left tackle.
So what about that LT 600 pound (or preferably 320-335 pound) elephant in the middle of the room. Here’s my hunch: Tra Thomas is still the Eagles starting LT next year. The fact that no one has met with him to talk contract yet is a big indicator that Thomas is asking, and asked the Eagles for, way too much. I would expect him and the Eagles to start talking again next week or the week after if no one else is expressing interest. I’ve heard some rumblings that Shawn Andrews could play LT—I’m willing to accept that that could be a possibility, but it’s not really what I’m looking for. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Stacy Andrews's Herremans’s ability to be a starting NFL LT, so I really do think we need to try to bring Thomas back while we groom his replacement.
I suspect Winston Justice is really on the outs here. I’ve seen nothing to show me he can play the left side and the Eagles didn’t seem to want him to be their primary backup there last year, and now that they’ve signed Stacy Andrews, it is hard to imagine they envision Justice having a future at RT (something I really did hope might work out). Look for King Dunlap to compete with a first or second round draft pick to be Thomas’s backup for a year or two and then replace him.
All quiet on the Defensive End front—as I’ve said before this could be Ok, depending on how good Abiamiri and Clemons really can be. Let’s see what happens with this one.
Defensive backs:
Great signing by the Eagles on Joselio Hanson. The guy can play.
I’m not going to belabor it, but of course we’ll all miss Dawkins. The contract he got was more than he’s worth, flat out. I’m not sure he was so overpaid that the Eagles couldn’t have considered overpaying a bit to keep him around, but I’m more than OK that they didn’t. They made a business decision and so did he—now it’s time to move on.
We’re set at corner as far as I’m concerned, with one of the better tandems in the league with Samuels and Brown and Joselio Hanson at the nickel (did I mention I like Joselio Hanson?), and Jack Ikeguono, a kid with all the promise in the world (now that he can afford his own x-box ... and quality legal representation).
At safety, I had been thinking we will see a lot of Demps this year, but interestingly, the Eagles just last night announced that they’re bringing in Browns SS Sean Jones and that he is scheduled to meet the media this afternoon (a telltale sign, usually, that the Eagles will be getting him under contract). I’m not sure what they have in mind for him. One possibility is to move Mikell over to FS, where he played as a backup earlier in his career. Another possibility is that Jones would be used like the Eagles used Dawkins the second half of last year, lining up as an FS but playing like SS/LB on nearly half the plays he’s on the field and having Demps lined up as a deep FS on obvious passing downs. It will be interesting to see, but I think Jim Johnson probably would be happy to be able to shuffle around three quality safeties, and the whole move Mikell over and just start Jones at SS plan remains a good possibility to have on the table in case Demps fails to meet expectations.
Offensive Skill positions:
Kudos to the Birds for getting anything for Greg Lewis (a 2009 5th in exchange for G-Lew and a 2010 7th). Fortunately for us Bill Belichik has a nice little man-crush on G-Lew. We’ll miss him a bit on special teams but someone else with speed can play that role (Jack I???). As a receiver he’s been a liability for a while. He just drops too many balls, so Bon voyage Greg Lewis. Incidentally, the comment boards on the Boston globe story about G-Lew are hilarious—fans are thinking that Lewis is the next Joe Jurevicius or Bobby Engram, like he’s going to be a great third receiver that’s going to reshape what their offense can do—one comment even suggested his deep speed would help open things up for Randy Moss (I kid you not).
As of now there really aren’t any WRs worth signing. Houshmanzadeh, I think, got way mre than he would have been worth to the Eagles, esp. when WR is not our primary need.
However, if Braylon Edwards and Anquan Boldin really are on the trade block, well, I’m salivating. Don’t be fooled by last season, Edwards is a beast—and his market value is about as low as it will ever be. Boldin obviously would be a great complement to Jackson and Curtis. I’d give a first and third for either in a heartbeat, although I think we could prob. get Edwards for a second, third, and fifth, or a first and fourth.
At TE there have been rumblings about trading for Tony Scheffler of the Broncos, who doesn’t fit with Daniel Graham into Josh McDaniels’s 3WR 1 TE system—I actually had a dream about the Birds acquiring Scheffler. Scheffler is a great pure receiving TE—he’s fast with good hands—think a more athletic, more promising version of Schoebel. I think he's faster than Celek and he’d give us another weapon, but probably we really need a second TE who can contribute more as a run-blocker. The most obvious person to fit that bill is rookie-to-be Brandon Pettigrew, a strong blocker and decent receiver who will certainly be available at 21 and may be available at 28.
As for a backup RB for Westbrook, expect the Eagles to draft a first day RB. There’s really no one out there on the open market who’s worth anything.
Fullback
Ahh, the fullback, my pet issue. If only Andy Reid pined for a fullback as deeply as I do. Somewhere in the recesses of his mind though, there is a kernel of respect for the fullback position, I have to believe there must be. Otherwise he couldn’t have signed John Ritchie way back when. The first movement on the FB market just happened last night with the Saints signing Heath Evans, so look for other FBs to start signing in the coming weeks now that a market has been set. I’m crossing my fingers for Leonard Weaver or Terrelle Smith.
Well, we’re one week in, so there’s still a lot more to come. As always, the Eagellectual can’t wait.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Offseason Assessment: Defense
As promised, here are my thoughts on our defense going into the start of free agency next Friday. I'll update my post as free agency unfolds. Already my offensive post should be slightly revised, since Jordan Gross has signed with Carolina, and it also seems that the Eagles have no intentions of franchising Tra Thomas, or anyone else. I think this is a real mistake, unless they think they can get Thomas to stay for less. Personally I'd like to see him play here at least one more year, but I also don't want to give tens of millions in guaranteed money to a 34 year old with a history of back problems. I also think its risky to go into the season without a veteran tackle or to assume that Herremans can handle playing the blind side in the pros. For more of my offensive analysis, see the earlier post.
And now the defense...
Defensive Line
Here is, I think, one of the more intriguing spots on the roster for some tinkering. First off, let’s just get it out in there that the Eagles will not be pursuing either Albert Haynesworth or Julius Peppers. Haynesworth has been inconsistent at times and dominant at others, but he’ll be asking more than the Eagles want to spend on a position where they already have two starters they like. Bunkley really is a beast (his strength enables him to play the run as if he were much heavier) and Patterson is definitely a very solid player.
As for Peppers, he’s going to cost way too much, would require some serious trading chips in addition to the 20 to 30 million in guarantees he’ll want, and he claims to want to play in a 3-4 (Please not Dallas).
The Eagles should be looking at another defensive end to shore up their pass rush. It’s possible that Abiamiri, Clemons, or Bryan Smith can be that guy. I think at this point it’s safe to say Juqua Parker can’t be. We need someone who can take most defensive snaps on the other side of Cole and can help this defensive line get pressure with just the front four. If we can still get to the QB on plays that aren’t obvious blitzing situations it will make our defense so much more effective. This was supposed to be why they brought in the three guys mentioned above, but last year, it still felt like way too many of our sacks came on blitzes. For some potentially more reasonably priced pass rushers who could come in and win a starting job or make one of the other guys on the roster have to really develop to secure the starting job, I like a couple Cardinals defensive ends in Antonio Smith and Bertrand Berry. It’s unlikely the Cardinals will sign both. I think either could start in this league or at least platoon with Abiamiri more effectively than Parker, who just seems to wear down by the end of every season.
Also, I’d expect them to add a backup DT behind Laws, either a veteran (I’d love fat Grady Jackson for goal line situations), but probably more likely a mid-round draft pick.
LBs
Don’t expect any significant changes here. I think Gocong was adequate and Jordan looked good. Bradley still overpursues at times and is learning to cover, but I like his game a lot. I think he can be a very solid player. He’s got the size and nose for the ball to be as disruptive as Trotter was and should be better in coverage since he seems quicker moving laterally and really, really smart. I think management loves this starting three and feel comfortable with Gaither and Tank Daniels as backups (and special teams players). Look for Tracy White, Andy Studebaker, and Joe Mays to compete for the sixth LB spot. I’d love to have a game changing linebacker around here, but there’s only a handful of those guys in the league, and that just isn’t what the Eagles value. The truth is that with a great secondary and a great line, you don’t need to be wasting a ton of money on the linebacker position, and they do think that this group can be as good as any other linebacking corps that Jim Johnson has had here. If there right, well, you can certainly win in this league with guys like Jeremiah Trotter and Carlos Emmons, without having players like Ray Lewis or Derrick Brooks.
Defensive Backs
Obviously, Mikell, Brown, and Samuel are awesome—each it probably among the ten best in the league at their position.
The big one here is to try to bring back Joselio Hanson (This is perhaps as important as the safety situation). Lito Sheppard will almost certainly be gone, and we won’t be getting much for him. With Brown and Samuel we may have the best pair of cornerbacks in the NFL, but we need that nickel guy and Hanson was great at it. I haven’t heard a lot of buzz about him as a starter elsewhere (not like there was when Al Harris and Rod Hood were up for free agency), so I’m hoping we can bring back Hanson.
At safety, I think the Eagles will try to get something done with Brian Dawkins. Probably they’ll do what they did with Trotter and Runyan a couple years ago. They’ll let Dawk go test the market and then come back to him with a contract that requires him to give the Eagles a slight hometown discount, which he’ll do b/c he likes playing here. I think the Eagles truly believe that Demps is the free safety of the future, and I think that we’re going to see him on the field a lot more next year. Dawkins did some incredible things though when they asked him to play close to the line in the second half of last season, and I think they’d like to keep him in the mix. The fact that this happens to be a very strong year for free agent safeties should help keep the Eagles from being outpriced for Dawkins, and if he does go elsewhere (or retires), the Eagles will be able to bring in a veteran who can share time with Demps until he’s ready to take over full time. Free agent safeties of interest if needed include Jermaine Phillips, Buccaneers (probably too good of a player, and thus too costly, for what the Eagles would be looking for in this situation), Marlon McCree, Denver, Darren Sharper, Vikings (probably will be overpriced based on past accomplishments), Mike Brown, Bears (a beast a few years ago, but can he stay healthy?).
For more depth at the position, I’d love to see them bring back J.R. Reed. I really hope they let Considine walk. I know they love him as a special teams player, but that guy cannot play safety in the NFL—he’s not big enough to make up for his lack of speed, not fast enough to make up for his lack of size, not a great tackler, and makes routine mistakes in coverage. He’s like a smaller, slower, worse-tackling Michael Lewis. At least Reed played with some fire and could hit. Considine has been one of those players for whom the Eagles seem to have an addiction they can’t kick, no matter how much it puzzles everyone else (like Reno Mahe or Barry Gardner).
Special Teams
Finally we have good return men and don’t have to worry about that. Rocca had a breakout season. While Akers was spotty, I see no reason to try to replace him. He’s still one of the better field goal kickers in the league on a good day, and we’ve got him under contract
And now the defense...
Defensive Line
Here is, I think, one of the more intriguing spots on the roster for some tinkering. First off, let’s just get it out in there that the Eagles will not be pursuing either Albert Haynesworth or Julius Peppers. Haynesworth has been inconsistent at times and dominant at others, but he’ll be asking more than the Eagles want to spend on a position where they already have two starters they like. Bunkley really is a beast (his strength enables him to play the run as if he were much heavier) and Patterson is definitely a very solid player.
As for Peppers, he’s going to cost way too much, would require some serious trading chips in addition to the 20 to 30 million in guarantees he’ll want, and he claims to want to play in a 3-4 (Please not Dallas).
The Eagles should be looking at another defensive end to shore up their pass rush. It’s possible that Abiamiri, Clemons, or Bryan Smith can be that guy. I think at this point it’s safe to say Juqua Parker can’t be. We need someone who can take most defensive snaps on the other side of Cole and can help this defensive line get pressure with just the front four. If we can still get to the QB on plays that aren’t obvious blitzing situations it will make our defense so much more effective. This was supposed to be why they brought in the three guys mentioned above, but last year, it still felt like way too many of our sacks came on blitzes. For some potentially more reasonably priced pass rushers who could come in and win a starting job or make one of the other guys on the roster have to really develop to secure the starting job, I like a couple Cardinals defensive ends in Antonio Smith and Bertrand Berry. It’s unlikely the Cardinals will sign both. I think either could start in this league or at least platoon with Abiamiri more effectively than Parker, who just seems to wear down by the end of every season.
Also, I’d expect them to add a backup DT behind Laws, either a veteran (I’d love fat Grady Jackson for goal line situations), but probably more likely a mid-round draft pick.
LBs
Don’t expect any significant changes here. I think Gocong was adequate and Jordan looked good. Bradley still overpursues at times and is learning to cover, but I like his game a lot. I think he can be a very solid player. He’s got the size and nose for the ball to be as disruptive as Trotter was and should be better in coverage since he seems quicker moving laterally and really, really smart. I think management loves this starting three and feel comfortable with Gaither and Tank Daniels as backups (and special teams players). Look for Tracy White, Andy Studebaker, and Joe Mays to compete for the sixth LB spot. I’d love to have a game changing linebacker around here, but there’s only a handful of those guys in the league, and that just isn’t what the Eagles value. The truth is that with a great secondary and a great line, you don’t need to be wasting a ton of money on the linebacker position, and they do think that this group can be as good as any other linebacking corps that Jim Johnson has had here. If there right, well, you can certainly win in this league with guys like Jeremiah Trotter and Carlos Emmons, without having players like Ray Lewis or Derrick Brooks.
Defensive Backs
Obviously, Mikell, Brown, and Samuel are awesome—each it probably among the ten best in the league at their position.
The big one here is to try to bring back Joselio Hanson (This is perhaps as important as the safety situation). Lito Sheppard will almost certainly be gone, and we won’t be getting much for him. With Brown and Samuel we may have the best pair of cornerbacks in the NFL, but we need that nickel guy and Hanson was great at it. I haven’t heard a lot of buzz about him as a starter elsewhere (not like there was when Al Harris and Rod Hood were up for free agency), so I’m hoping we can bring back Hanson.
At safety, I think the Eagles will try to get something done with Brian Dawkins. Probably they’ll do what they did with Trotter and Runyan a couple years ago. They’ll let Dawk go test the market and then come back to him with a contract that requires him to give the Eagles a slight hometown discount, which he’ll do b/c he likes playing here. I think the Eagles truly believe that Demps is the free safety of the future, and I think that we’re going to see him on the field a lot more next year. Dawkins did some incredible things though when they asked him to play close to the line in the second half of last season, and I think they’d like to keep him in the mix. The fact that this happens to be a very strong year for free agent safeties should help keep the Eagles from being outpriced for Dawkins, and if he does go elsewhere (or retires), the Eagles will be able to bring in a veteran who can share time with Demps until he’s ready to take over full time. Free agent safeties of interest if needed include Jermaine Phillips, Buccaneers (probably too good of a player, and thus too costly, for what the Eagles would be looking for in this situation), Marlon McCree, Denver, Darren Sharper, Vikings (probably will be overpriced based on past accomplishments), Mike Brown, Bears (a beast a few years ago, but can he stay healthy?).
For more depth at the position, I’d love to see them bring back J.R. Reed. I really hope they let Considine walk. I know they love him as a special teams player, but that guy cannot play safety in the NFL—he’s not big enough to make up for his lack of speed, not fast enough to make up for his lack of size, not a great tackler, and makes routine mistakes in coverage. He’s like a smaller, slower, worse-tackling Michael Lewis. At least Reed played with some fire and could hit. Considine has been one of those players for whom the Eagles seem to have an addiction they can’t kick, no matter how much it puzzles everyone else (like Reno Mahe or Barry Gardner).
Special Teams
Finally we have good return men and don’t have to worry about that. Rocca had a breakout season. While Akers was spotty, I see no reason to try to replace him. He’s still one of the better field goal kickers in the league on a good day, and we’ve got him under contract
Friday, February 13, 2009
Offseason Assessment: Offense
Offseason Assessment
Before I begin my offseason assessment, I want to make one point that NFL fans often seem to forget: In the NFL there is a salary cap. The Eagles are not cheap—they are constrained by the cap. They may not always choose best how to spend their money, but they do choose to spend it, and I think on the tough free agent decisions they’ve made they’ve been right more often than the league average. So keeping that in mind, and recognizing we won’t be able to get everything we want, here are my thoughts.
Here are my top concerns:
1. Offensive Line—We need to think hard about what this line will look like this year, AND what it will look like over the next few—and what that means for Tra and Runyan.
2. Improve the pass rush
3. Add a real fullback
4. Add another running back to help Westbrook—a young guy who could back up now and then become a lead guy (like the Chiefs did with Larry Johnson six years ago and the Steelers and Cowboys are now doing with Rashard Mendenhall and Felix Jones)
5. Keep the secondary together (in other words resign Hanson and Dawkins)
6. Try to add another weapon in the receiving game (but don’t overpay for someone who’s barely better than Jackson, Curtis, or Celek)
If the Eagles can take care of number 1 and four of the others, I think we’ll have a lot to be optimistic about for next year. This is a team that has a young and exciting defense but an aging quaterback and running back, so we need to both be careful not to mortage the future, but also to recognize the need to win now, b/c the best player in our offense (Westbrook) probably has a max of two to three more top end years left, and that's only if he can stay healthy. Below, I look at each offensive position in more depth. Look for a post about the defensive side of the ball by next week.
QB
The quarterback position obviously revolves around McNabb. I think the Eagles will, and should, keep McNabb. He is still probably one of the ten or twelve best quarterbacks in this league and there’s no one else out there even close for a comparable price. The other option is to go with Kolb or another youngster and think about rebuilding. This, I think, would be a mistake. This defense is too talented and Brian Westbrook is at the tail end of his prime—we should be trying to win now. That said, I do not think the Eagles should be giving McNabb a significant contract extension. He owes us, at a minimum, one more great, healthy season, from beginning to end, before we commit to paying him 15 million a year until he’s 37. He has two years left on his contract, 9 million this year, and 10 million the next. If he deserves it after this season, let him come back next offseason and ask for a renegotiation. At this point, I’m not convinced he deserves it with two years left to play on the current contract.
RB
This is one of the most important positions for the off-season. We need another back who can take the load of Westbrook. I like Correll Buckhalter, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in Eagle green next year, but I want someone with a brighter future also (or perhaps instead). It would be out of character, but I’d love to see the Eagles use one of their first round draft picks on a running back who can not only spell Westbrook but also have the talent to have a chance to be the number 1 back here in a few years when Westbrook breaks down (I like LeSean McCoy for this offense—he runs bigger than B-West but can still do the things needed in the receiving game to have a chance to stick around in this offense). There’s really nothing worthwile out there in free agency anyway. The Giants will resign Brandon Jacobs and probably Derrick Ward. After that there’s not too much talent at this position. Edgerinn James will be available, but I want some young talent. As far as James, I’d probably rather have Buckhalter for a third of the price. Needless to say, Booker should not make the 53 man roster. I'd be ok with keeping Eckel around, but not as a substitute for a legitimate fullback.
FB
We need a fullback!!! This has bothered me for years. It’s been a problem since the beginning of the 2004 season when John Ritchie went down. Who knows if our run game in the Super Bowl would have looked different with Ritchie in.
With a small back like Westbrook, I think the benefit of a stud fullback cannot be underrated. One less defender to deal with makes it that much easier for Westbrook to get out in space. I’d love to see us go out and spend the money on either Tyrelle Smith of Arizona or Tony Richardson of the Jets. Both are free agents, and both would, I think, be money well spent.
WR
I like our WR corp. I don’t love it, but I really do think it could work. Jackson is only going to get better, and Curtis also is among the top half of starting receivers in the league. Avant came along as a real nice role player, and I still think they can get more out of restricted free agent Hank Baskett, whom they should tender at the middle or high level. That said, I think if there’s a chance to go out and get a stud, especially a guy with some more size than Curtis or Jackson, I’m all for it of course. I only think it’s worth spending big time money on players that are complete game changers, not minor upgrades. Look at the free agent wide receivers that the Eagles have wisely avoided when fans demanded an upgrade: Deion Branch, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Peerless Price—Does anyone still wish the Eagles had signed these guys? Of course not. The truth is that there are about fifteen or twenty wide receivers that are so obviously better than Jackson and Curtis that they might be worth serious free agent money. The only ones who is a free agent is Houshmanzadeh, although a trade for Anquan Boldin remains a very intriguing possibility. Antonio Bryant could also be intriguing, but I doubt Andy wouldn’t want a guy with his reputation for disruptiveness and laziness. With all that said, if Baskett walks, they’ll need to add another 3rd WR type with some size—if so, I might like Penn State product Bryant Johnson, who I think still may have a future in this league after being stuck behind Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona and then in that terrible offense in SF last year. I think the Eagles will dump Reggie Brown if they add another wr, but if not, they’ll likely keep him around through August as an injury insurance policy and then dump him if everyone’s healthy. Greg Lewis is a nice special teams player and is fine for a sixth receiver. Andy, however, needs to keep him off the field when everyone else is healthy. There should not be any special packages or plays for Greg Lewis. Let him stick around for now, and we can hope that they find a late round receiver who can do as much as Lewis on special teams and has more potential to contribute to our offense down the line.
TE
The Eagles need another TE, and the pickings at TE are slim. LJ Smith is probably the second or third best unrestricted free agent out there. I don’t see them as willing to give up a ton to get Tony Gonzalez, and I think that’s probably the right move (he’s going to cost more than he’s worth btw draft picks and contract). Look for Celek to remain their starting tight end. They’ll probably then bring in a low-level free agent—Leonard Pope?, Dan Campbell? former Eagles blocking TE Tony Stewart?—and also draft a guy in the mid-rounds. It would be a disappointment if Schoebel makes this team again, but they won’t cut him until they see what else they have. Kris Wilson was supposed to beat him out this year and couldn’t.
Offensive Line
This is the most important position this year and it is where some decisions will have to be made. Complicating all this is the fact that John Runyan just had microfracture surgery on his knee that will keep him shelved until training camp. Here I’m going to pencil Herremans and Jackson in as continuing as starters at left guard and center and then move right to left addressing the other three positions.
At right tackle, I think the Eagles may bring Runyan back, but with his surgery, they’ll wait it out to see if any market develops for him. Another option for RT is Andrews if he can get physically and mentally healthy. A third option that should not be ruled out is that Winston Justice ends up as the starting right tackle next year. There has to be a reason he’s still around. When the Eagles drafted Jsutice, they believed he could start as a blind side tackle b/c he had done so brilliantly in one of college football’s most prolific offenses at USC. The problem, though, is that Matt Leinart is a lefty, so when Justice protected Leinart’s blind side, Justice lined up on the right side of the line. Most NFL lineman are capable of switching sides, but there have been some who are markedly better on one side than the other, and Justice may be just that. Playing the right side also requires less foot speed than is necessary on the left side against most NFL defenses. I’m not sure Justice will be the answer at RT—we’ve barely seen him—but don’t be surprised if the Eagles go with Justice and don’t be surprised if it ends up working out. If they’re not sure about Justice yet, then expect them to try to bring in Runyan at a bargain price while he’s hurt.
At right guard, the Eagles would love to start Andrews. They drafted him to play tackle originally, but he’s just been so good at Guard when healthy that I think the best bet is to try to keep him there. If they have to slide him out, I think both Jean-Gilles and Nick Cole (a free agent, but one I think the Eagles are likely to resign fairly cheaply) were adequate enough to start for a season, but both have enough flaws in their game that it would be better for them to be backups.
Now LT is the tough position. Tra Thomas has definitely lost a step, but he’s still probably in the top third of LTs in the league. The problem is, as the second best tackle on the market (after Jordan Gross of Carolina), Thomas will get a big contract that pays him too much for his age. It would be cool to see them make a run at Gross, and a lot of Philly radio guys are talking this up, but I don’t see it. I think they’ll want to groom an LT in their system. What I would do, although there’s not a ton of buzz about this, is franchise Thomas and draft an LT in the first round. You give Thomas one more year to protect McNabb and you draft a guy who can hopefully be the LT of the future (Michael Oher has top 10 talent but some question marks about his consistency may make him available at 21, if we want to gamble on a guy like that). Plus, there is still an OUTSIDE chance that King Dunlap could develop into something—he certainly has the body type. I'd rather overpay Thomas for one year than for the next four, and I really do want a veteran at the LT position next year.
Bench: Look for them to try to bring back Cole and expect Max Jean-Gilles and last year’s 4th rounder Mike McGlynn to definitely make the team. After that, I expect the Eagles to pick a couple offensive linemen on the second day to compete for a roster spot. Also, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles look for another big center to push Jamaal Jackson. Jackson is a big man with a lot of strength but he makes mistakes in blitz pickup sometimes, and he has never been able to match his performance and ability to get down field that he displayed during his breakout season when the Eagles went to the playoffs with Jeff Garcia.
Before I begin my offseason assessment, I want to make one point that NFL fans often seem to forget: In the NFL there is a salary cap. The Eagles are not cheap—they are constrained by the cap. They may not always choose best how to spend their money, but they do choose to spend it, and I think on the tough free agent decisions they’ve made they’ve been right more often than the league average. So keeping that in mind, and recognizing we won’t be able to get everything we want, here are my thoughts.
Here are my top concerns:
1. Offensive Line—We need to think hard about what this line will look like this year, AND what it will look like over the next few—and what that means for Tra and Runyan.
2. Improve the pass rush
3. Add a real fullback
4. Add another running back to help Westbrook—a young guy who could back up now and then become a lead guy (like the Chiefs did with Larry Johnson six years ago and the Steelers and Cowboys are now doing with Rashard Mendenhall and Felix Jones)
5. Keep the secondary together (in other words resign Hanson and Dawkins)
6. Try to add another weapon in the receiving game (but don’t overpay for someone who’s barely better than Jackson, Curtis, or Celek)
If the Eagles can take care of number 1 and four of the others, I think we’ll have a lot to be optimistic about for next year. This is a team that has a young and exciting defense but an aging quaterback and running back, so we need to both be careful not to mortage the future, but also to recognize the need to win now, b/c the best player in our offense (Westbrook) probably has a max of two to three more top end years left, and that's only if he can stay healthy. Below, I look at each offensive position in more depth. Look for a post about the defensive side of the ball by next week.
QB
The quarterback position obviously revolves around McNabb. I think the Eagles will, and should, keep McNabb. He is still probably one of the ten or twelve best quarterbacks in this league and there’s no one else out there even close for a comparable price. The other option is to go with Kolb or another youngster and think about rebuilding. This, I think, would be a mistake. This defense is too talented and Brian Westbrook is at the tail end of his prime—we should be trying to win now. That said, I do not think the Eagles should be giving McNabb a significant contract extension. He owes us, at a minimum, one more great, healthy season, from beginning to end, before we commit to paying him 15 million a year until he’s 37. He has two years left on his contract, 9 million this year, and 10 million the next. If he deserves it after this season, let him come back next offseason and ask for a renegotiation. At this point, I’m not convinced he deserves it with two years left to play on the current contract.
RB
This is one of the most important positions for the off-season. We need another back who can take the load of Westbrook. I like Correll Buckhalter, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in Eagle green next year, but I want someone with a brighter future also (or perhaps instead). It would be out of character, but I’d love to see the Eagles use one of their first round draft picks on a running back who can not only spell Westbrook but also have the talent to have a chance to be the number 1 back here in a few years when Westbrook breaks down (I like LeSean McCoy for this offense—he runs bigger than B-West but can still do the things needed in the receiving game to have a chance to stick around in this offense). There’s really nothing worthwile out there in free agency anyway. The Giants will resign Brandon Jacobs and probably Derrick Ward. After that there’s not too much talent at this position. Edgerinn James will be available, but I want some young talent. As far as James, I’d probably rather have Buckhalter for a third of the price. Needless to say, Booker should not make the 53 man roster. I'd be ok with keeping Eckel around, but not as a substitute for a legitimate fullback.
FB
We need a fullback!!! This has bothered me for years. It’s been a problem since the beginning of the 2004 season when John Ritchie went down. Who knows if our run game in the Super Bowl would have looked different with Ritchie in.
With a small back like Westbrook, I think the benefit of a stud fullback cannot be underrated. One less defender to deal with makes it that much easier for Westbrook to get out in space. I’d love to see us go out and spend the money on either Tyrelle Smith of Arizona or Tony Richardson of the Jets. Both are free agents, and both would, I think, be money well spent.
WR
I like our WR corp. I don’t love it, but I really do think it could work. Jackson is only going to get better, and Curtis also is among the top half of starting receivers in the league. Avant came along as a real nice role player, and I still think they can get more out of restricted free agent Hank Baskett, whom they should tender at the middle or high level. That said, I think if there’s a chance to go out and get a stud, especially a guy with some more size than Curtis or Jackson, I’m all for it of course. I only think it’s worth spending big time money on players that are complete game changers, not minor upgrades. Look at the free agent wide receivers that the Eagles have wisely avoided when fans demanded an upgrade: Deion Branch, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Peerless Price—Does anyone still wish the Eagles had signed these guys? Of course not. The truth is that there are about fifteen or twenty wide receivers that are so obviously better than Jackson and Curtis that they might be worth serious free agent money. The only ones who is a free agent is Houshmanzadeh, although a trade for Anquan Boldin remains a very intriguing possibility. Antonio Bryant could also be intriguing, but I doubt Andy wouldn’t want a guy with his reputation for disruptiveness and laziness. With all that said, if Baskett walks, they’ll need to add another 3rd WR type with some size—if so, I might like Penn State product Bryant Johnson, who I think still may have a future in this league after being stuck behind Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona and then in that terrible offense in SF last year. I think the Eagles will dump Reggie Brown if they add another wr, but if not, they’ll likely keep him around through August as an injury insurance policy and then dump him if everyone’s healthy. Greg Lewis is a nice special teams player and is fine for a sixth receiver. Andy, however, needs to keep him off the field when everyone else is healthy. There should not be any special packages or plays for Greg Lewis. Let him stick around for now, and we can hope that they find a late round receiver who can do as much as Lewis on special teams and has more potential to contribute to our offense down the line.
TE
The Eagles need another TE, and the pickings at TE are slim. LJ Smith is probably the second or third best unrestricted free agent out there. I don’t see them as willing to give up a ton to get Tony Gonzalez, and I think that’s probably the right move (he’s going to cost more than he’s worth btw draft picks and contract). Look for Celek to remain their starting tight end. They’ll probably then bring in a low-level free agent—Leonard Pope?, Dan Campbell? former Eagles blocking TE Tony Stewart?—and also draft a guy in the mid-rounds. It would be a disappointment if Schoebel makes this team again, but they won’t cut him until they see what else they have. Kris Wilson was supposed to beat him out this year and couldn’t.
Offensive Line
This is the most important position this year and it is where some decisions will have to be made. Complicating all this is the fact that John Runyan just had microfracture surgery on his knee that will keep him shelved until training camp. Here I’m going to pencil Herremans and Jackson in as continuing as starters at left guard and center and then move right to left addressing the other three positions.
At right tackle, I think the Eagles may bring Runyan back, but with his surgery, they’ll wait it out to see if any market develops for him. Another option for RT is Andrews if he can get physically and mentally healthy. A third option that should not be ruled out is that Winston Justice ends up as the starting right tackle next year. There has to be a reason he’s still around. When the Eagles drafted Jsutice, they believed he could start as a blind side tackle b/c he had done so brilliantly in one of college football’s most prolific offenses at USC. The problem, though, is that Matt Leinart is a lefty, so when Justice protected Leinart’s blind side, Justice lined up on the right side of the line. Most NFL lineman are capable of switching sides, but there have been some who are markedly better on one side than the other, and Justice may be just that. Playing the right side also requires less foot speed than is necessary on the left side against most NFL defenses. I’m not sure Justice will be the answer at RT—we’ve barely seen him—but don’t be surprised if the Eagles go with Justice and don’t be surprised if it ends up working out. If they’re not sure about Justice yet, then expect them to try to bring in Runyan at a bargain price while he’s hurt.
At right guard, the Eagles would love to start Andrews. They drafted him to play tackle originally, but he’s just been so good at Guard when healthy that I think the best bet is to try to keep him there. If they have to slide him out, I think both Jean-Gilles and Nick Cole (a free agent, but one I think the Eagles are likely to resign fairly cheaply) were adequate enough to start for a season, but both have enough flaws in their game that it would be better for them to be backups.
Now LT is the tough position. Tra Thomas has definitely lost a step, but he’s still probably in the top third of LTs in the league. The problem is, as the second best tackle on the market (after Jordan Gross of Carolina), Thomas will get a big contract that pays him too much for his age. It would be cool to see them make a run at Gross, and a lot of Philly radio guys are talking this up, but I don’t see it. I think they’ll want to groom an LT in their system. What I would do, although there’s not a ton of buzz about this, is franchise Thomas and draft an LT in the first round. You give Thomas one more year to protect McNabb and you draft a guy who can hopefully be the LT of the future (Michael Oher has top 10 talent but some question marks about his consistency may make him available at 21, if we want to gamble on a guy like that). Plus, there is still an OUTSIDE chance that King Dunlap could develop into something—he certainly has the body type. I'd rather overpay Thomas for one year than for the next four, and I really do want a veteran at the LT position next year.
Bench: Look for them to try to bring back Cole and expect Max Jean-Gilles and last year’s 4th rounder Mike McGlynn to definitely make the team. After that, I expect the Eagles to pick a couple offensive linemen on the second day to compete for a roster spot. Also, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles look for another big center to push Jamaal Jackson. Jackson is a big man with a lot of strength but he makes mistakes in blitz pickup sometimes, and he has never been able to match his performance and ability to get down field that he displayed during his breakout season when the Eagles went to the playoffs with Jeff Garcia.
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